Today: DL 482 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–50%.

Safest bet today DL 482 LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 4146 LAX 23:00 → MCO 07:13 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 482 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	MCO 15:35	15%	3%	0.2%	84%
UA 1730 United Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MCO 07:03	26%	6%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
DL 547 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:27	MCO 06:25	28%	6%	1.2%	79%
WN 2409 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 22:05	MCO 06:00	30%	8%	0.7%	64%
AA 1118 American Flight history →	LAX 21:55	MCO 05:56	30%	9%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
WN 937 Southwest	LAX 22:21	MCO 06:09	31%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 718 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:05	MCO 00:07	33%	9%	0.3%	77%
DL 867 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:28	MCO 18:42	35%	8%	0.2%	69%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	LAX 10:24	MCO 18:30	36%	8%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
AA 1024 American Flight history →	LAX 10:51	MCO 18:56	36%	8%	0.5%	69%
AA 2192 American Flight history →	LAX 13:54	MCO 21:59	44%	10%	0.5%	54%
F9 4146 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:00	MCO 07:13	50%	19%	2.6%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 06:35 → LAS 07:45WN 2403	46m Las Vegas	LAS 08:31 → MCO 16:02WN 2387	6h 27m	84%	63%
Southwest Details →	LGB 10:05 → DEN 13:20WN 4238	1h 06m Denver	DEN 14:26 → MCO 20:00WN 2137	6h 55m	90%	60%
Southwest Details →	BUR 09:30 → LAS 10:40WN 4724	1h 06m Las Vegas	LAS 11:46 → MCO 19:18WN 1004	6h 48m	89%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON