Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:32 am at Los Angeles area); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Today: AA 637 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–35%.

Safest bet today AA 637 LAX 06:49 → MIA 14:33 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2942 LAX 20:52 → MIA 05:01 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 637 American	LAX 06:49	MIA 14:33	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	14%	4%	0.2%	87%
DL 573 Delta	LAX 08:19	FLL 16:27	18%	4%	0.1%	no record
DL 477 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:59	FLL 07:05	21%	5%	0.8%	73%
B6 100 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:05	FLL 20:25	25%	7%	0.3%	72%
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	25%	8%	0.3%	87%worse than usual
B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:31	FLL 18:47	26%	7%	0.3%	75%
B6 1300 JetBlue	LAX 15:33	FLL 23:48	26%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 2777 American Flight history →	LAX 22:53	MIA 07:18	27%	7%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	28%	6%	0.2%	77%
AA 3016 American Flight history →	LAX 10:40	MIA 19:00	28%	7%	0.2%	68%
AA 1221 American Flight history →	LAX 22:00	MIA 06:14	30%	6%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
AA 2289 American Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MIA 07:18	30%	7%	0.8%	70%
B6 700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 23:35	FLL 07:56	30%	12%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
AA 858 American	LAX 10:44	MIA 18:59	31%	8%	0.2%	no record
B6 1400 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:40	FLL 05:02	33%	15%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
AA 467 American	LAX 13:55	MIA 22:08	33%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 778 American	LAX 20:58	MIA 05:12	35%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 3124 American Flight history →	LAX 12:25	MIA 20:45	35%	7%	0.2%	60%
AA 3013 American Flight history →	LAX 13:49	MIA 21:57	35%	7%	0.5%	68%
AA 2942 American Flight history →	LAX 20:52	MIA 05:01	35%	6%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SNA 09:49 → PHX 11:12AA 2660	1h 02m Phoenix	PHX 12:14 → MIA 19:41AA 404	6h 52m	84%	58%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:45 → AUS 13:40WN 2476	1h 01m Austin	AUS 14:41 → MIA 18:31WN 3693	6h 46m	86%	56%
United Details →	SNA 11:58 → IAH 17:20UA 2050	1h 06m Houston	IAH 18:26 → FLL 22:04UA 1956	7h 06m	78%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON