Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: DL 787 at 23:02, 33%.

Safest bet today DL 787 LAS 23:02 → ATL 06:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2428 LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 787 Delta	LAS 23:02	ATL 06:05	33%	7%	0.3%	no record
DL 417 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:06	ATL 05:09	35%	7%	0.4%	98%worse than usual
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:12	ATL 20:24	37%	9%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
DL 879 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:00	ATL 05:00	37%	7%	0.4%	85%worse than usual
DL 591 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:38	ATL 21:49	40%	11%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
F9 2428 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:50	ATL 06:59	45%	13%	1.4%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON