Today: WN 2264 at 22:15 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–52%.

Safest bet today WN 2264 LAS 22:15 → BWI 05:46 · 40% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2263 LAS 16:25 → BWI 23:59 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2264 Southwest	LAS 22:15	BWI 05:46	40%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 2208 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	BWI 05:45	40%	12%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
WN 2206 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:35	BWI 00:15	45%	14%	0.2%	59%
WN 2263 Southwest	LAS 16:25	BWI 23:59	52%	18%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON