Today: AA 3099 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 45–56%.

Safest bet today AA 3099 LAS 23:59 → DFW 04:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest F9 1052 LAS 14:22 → DFW 19:26 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 55% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3099 American Flight history →	LAS 23:59	DFW 04:44	29%	9%	0.6%	74%
AA 3286 American Flight history →	LAS 18:24	DFW 23:07	45%	14%	0.7%	65%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:24	46%	14%	0.9%	66%worse than usual
AA 777 American Flight history →	LAS 14:02	DFW 19:03	47%	14%	0.8%	73%worse than usual
AA 1482 American Flight history →	LAS 12:34	DFW 17:30	48%	18%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
AA 3285 American Flight history →	LAS 12:47	DFW 17:49	48%	19%	1.1%	69%worse than usual
F9 3978 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 19:59	DFW 00:51	50%	19%	1.9%	82%worse than usual
AA 1380 American Flight history →	LAS 16:44	DFW 21:28	55%	17%	0.8%	67%worse than usual
F9 1052 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:22	DFW 19:26	56%	20%	1.3%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON