Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:38 pm at Las Vegas); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:55, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1681 United Flight history →	LAS 23:04	EWR 07:00	33%	10%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
UA 655 United Flight history →	LAS 23:31	EWR 07:27	35%	11%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 19:55 → SLC 22:15DL 1590	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	7h 05m	77%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:49 → SEA 21:34AS 1681	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314	9h 10m	48%	32%
United Details →	LAS 19:52 → SFO 21:34UA 1267	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → EWR 07:00 +1UA 1141	8h 08m	45%	30%
American Details →	LAS 20:05 → PHX 21:18AA 1022	56m Phoenix	PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156	6h 55m	40%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON