Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:40 pm at Las Vegas); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, B6 608 at 22:35, with a 50% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


B6 608 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 22:35	FLL 06:29	50%	22%	0.5%	71%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 18:10 → DEN 21:11UA 1291	2h 48m Denver	DEN 23:59 → FLL 05:50 +1UA 519	8h 40m	94%	67%
United Details →	LAS 17:17 → SFO 18:59UA 2841	2h 16m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230	9h 42m	90%	66%
Delta Details →	LAS 19:06 → LAX 20:16DL 2288	2h 43m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → FLL 07:05 +1DL 477	8h 59m	82%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 18:20 → SFO 20:02UA 1603	1h 13m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230	8h 39m	66%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON