Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:36 pm at Las Vegas); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62%, against 42% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2750 at 19:20, 62%.

Nonstops today


WN 2750 Southwest	LAS 19:20	IND 01:50	62%	16%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 19:52 → SFO 21:34UA 1267	2h 01m San Francisco	SFO 23:35 → IND 07:11 +1UA 1726	8h 19m	84%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 19:52 → SFO 21:34UA 1267	1h 31m San Francisco	SFO 23:05 → IND 06:38 +1UA 2477	7h 46m	71%	48%
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:49 → SEA 21:34AS 1681	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 22:39 → IND 05:44 +1AS 624	7h 55m	46%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON