Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1356 at 23:15, 33%.

Safest bet today AA 1356 LAS 23:15 → JFK 07:11 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 948 LAS 23:59 → JFK 08:00 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1356 American	LAS 23:15	JFK 07:11	33%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 1159 Delta	LAS 23:43	JFK 07:21	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 498 Delta Flight history →	LAS 23:30	JFK 07:25	35%	8%	0.7%	64%
AA 556 American Flight history →	LAS 22:46	JFK 07:00	37%	11%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
B6 948 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 23:59	JFK 08:00	38%	12%	0.6%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON