Today: WN 4590 at 22:50 is the safest bet, 36% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–48%.

Safest bet today WN 4590 LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest F9 1876 LAS 21:42 → MCO 05:30 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4590 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:50	MCO 06:25	36%	10%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
WN 3508 Southwest	LAS 22:50	MCO 06:19	36%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 1555 Southwest	LAS 17:30	MCO 01:15	46%	15%	0.6%	no record
F9 1876 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:42	MCO 05:30	48%	20%	1.4%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON