Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:03 pm at Las Vegas); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 1542 at 17:20, with a 43% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1542 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:20	MSP 22:31	43%	11%	0.2%	84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672	3h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847	7h 49m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAS 19:55 → SLC 22:15DL 1590	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847	4h 54m	55%	43%
United Details →	LAS 16:25 → DEN 19:30UA 2108	1h 24m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	5h 34m	71%	40%
American Details →	LAS 16:42 → PHX 18:02AA 1541	48m Phoenix	PHX 18:50 → MSP 23:58AA 3142	5h 16m	44%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON