Today: AA 1191 at 23:35 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–50%.

Safest bet today AA 1191 LAS 23:35 → PHL 07:27 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1602 LAS 22:13 → PHL 06:00 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1191 American Flight history →	LAS 23:35	PHL 07:27	21%	7%	0.4%	96%worse than usual
AA 437 American Flight history →	LAS 23:20	PHL 07:07	21%	7%	0.4%	87%
AA 1121 American Flight history →	LAS 22:15	PHL 06:04	26%	7%	0.4%	88%worse than usual
F9 1602 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:13	PHL 06:00	50%	19%	1.4%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON