Today: WN 2440 at 20:58 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–58%.

Safest bet today WN 2440 LAS 20:58 → SNA 22:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3737 LAS 15:53 → SNA 17:12 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2440 Southwest	LAS 20:58	SNA 22:10	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4266 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:10	SNA 21:20	29%	7%	0.2%	52%
WN 3289 Southwest	LAS 11:35	SNA 12:45	33%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4220 Southwest	LAS 13:18	SNA 14:29	39%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 2366 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:15	SNA 19:25	39%	8%	0.3%	47%
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:01	SNA 19:15	39%	8%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:55	SNA 15:05	43%	10%	0.2%	44%
WN 3913 Southwest	LAS 19:07	SNA 20:19	44%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 1209 Southwest	LAS 15:55	SNA 17:10	45%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 460 Southwest	LAS 17:32	SNA 18:43	46%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 4543 Southwest	LAS 15:50	SNA 17:01	46%	10%	0.2%	no record
F9 3737 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:53	SNA 17:12	58%	15%	1.1%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON