Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:05 pm at Los Angeles); 13 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: DL 899 at 22:40, 38%.

Safest bet today DL 899 LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:10 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest DL 483 LAX 16:19 → ATL 21:47 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 899 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:40	ATL 06:10	38%	7%	0.3%	79%worse than usual
DL 8891 Delta	LAX 22:07	ATL 05:33	38%	8%	0.3%	no record
DL 783 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:24	ATL 05:00	40%	9%	0.3%	82%worse than usual
DL 320 Delta Flight history →	LAX 23:59	ATL 07:33	40%	8%	0.4%	74%worse than usual
DL 471 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:40	ATL 00:30	45%	11%	0.4%	85%worse than usual
DL 329 Delta	LAX 16:22	ATL 23:03	52%	14%	0.4%	no record
DL 483 Delta	LAX 16:19	ATL 21:47	60%	14%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON