Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:49 pm at Los Angeles); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1605 at 23:08, 29%.

Safest bet today UA 1605 LAX 23:08 → BWI 07:17 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4276 LAX 13:26 → BWI 21:27 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Weather 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:08	BWI 07:17	29%	6%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
WN 2385 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:50	BWI 05:45	39%	7%	0.2%	71%
WN 2477 Southwest	LAX 21:51	BWI 05:49	39%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 1438 Southwest	LAX 13:40	BWI 21:40	51%	10%	0.3%	no record
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:26	BWI 21:27	52%	10%	0.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 13:30 → STL 19:10WN 2400	1h 21m St Louis	STL 20:31 → BWI 23:39WN 4048	7h 09m	76%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON