tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:09 pm at Los Angeles); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42% (calm day: 29%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, 75% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 18m 96% 75%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 19:05 → LAS 20:20WN 2404 2h 15m Las Vegas LAS 22:35 → BZN 01:40 +1WN 2454 5h 35m 96% 62%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:25 → SEA 19:11AS 1375 1h 29m Seattle SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458 5h 54m 85% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 19:15 → SLC 22:04DL 1483 1h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 4h 08m 51% 40%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:59 → SEA 19:41AS 1305 59m Seattle SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458 5h 20m 55% 32%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 19:05 → LAS 20:20WN 2404 50m Las Vegas LAS 21:10 → BZN 00:15 +1WN 4336 4h 10m 25% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON