Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:36 pm at Los Angeles); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54% (calm day: 39%). Best bet: Frontier via Las Vegas, leaving 21:09, 25% on time.

Nonstops today


UA 2641 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	CLE 06:10	25%	4%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
UA 2756 United	LAX 16:23	CLE 23:51	33%	7%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 16:00 → SEA 18:34AS 585	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 22:13 → CLE 05:43 +1AS 269	10h 43m	100%	67%
United Details →	LAX 18:45 → SFO 20:10UA 2681	2h 58m San Francisco	SFO 23:08 → CLE 06:59 +1UA 2097	9h 14m	96%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1988	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260	7h 31m	55%	33%
Frontier Details →	LAX 21:09 → LAS 22:32F9 2334	46m Las Vegas	LAS 23:18 → CLE 06:29 +1F9 1822	6h 20m	40%	25%
Southwest Details →	LAX 14:45 → DEN 18:05WN 2392	50m Denver	DEN 18:55 → CLE 23:48WN 1425	6h 03m	22%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON