Today: AA 2199 at 21:41 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–39%.

Safest bet today AA 2199 LAX 21:41 → CLT 05:24 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1988 LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2199 American Flight history →	LAX 21:41	CLT 05:24	29%	6%	0.3%	86%worse than usual
AA 3035 American Flight history →	LAX 22:35	CLT 06:19	31%	6%	0.4%	77%
AA 2115 American	LAX 23:40	CLT 07:31	31%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 1988 American Flight history →	LAX 13:58	CLT 21:55	39%	10%	0.2%	72%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 20:41 → PHX 22:09AA 2293	1h 26m Phoenix	PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849	6h 54m	82%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON