Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 57%, against 43% on a calm day. Safest: WN 849 at 14:05, 49%.

Safest bet today WN 849 LAX 14:05 → DAL 19:13 · 49% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2325 LAX 17:55 → DAL 23:02 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 57% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 43% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 849 Southwest	LAX 14:05	DAL 19:13	49%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 1374 Southwest	LAX 15:25	DAL 20:35	58%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 4128 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:45	DAL 22:50	60%	11%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
WN 2325 Southwest	LAX 17:55	DAL 23:02	60%	11%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON