Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:12 pm at Los Angeles); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:32, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAX 19:32 → PHX 21:02AA 1362	2h 50m Phoenix	PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 +1AA 1542	8h 42m	91%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON