tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:22 pm at Los Angeles); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54% (calm day: 39%). Best bet: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 13:30, 17% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 407 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:20 DTW 05:43 35% 8% 0.1% 80%worse than usual
DL 708 Delta Flight history → LAX 15:50 DTW 23:19 47% 13% 0.1% 82%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:01 → PDX 19:17DL 2459 3h 55m Portland PDX 23:12 → DTW 06:29 +1DL 1325 10h 28m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:41 → PHX 19:14DL 4077 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Phoenix PHX 23:04 → DTW 05:46 +1DL 1566 9h 05m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 3h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 23:50 → DTW 05:12 +1DL 2841 9h 07m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 21:30 → DTW 05:20 +1UA 234 10h 06m 99% 66%
DeltaDetails → LAX 18:16 → SFO 19:41DL 2197 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 22:55 → DTW 06:27 +1DL 335 9h 11m 98% 64%
UnitedDetails → LAX 18:45 → SFO 20:10UA 2681 2h 40m San Francisco SFO 22:50 → DTW 06:47 +1UA 1986 9h 02m 94% 62%
DeltaDetails → LAX 19:55 → LAS 21:04DL 2202 2h 06m Las Vegas LAS 23:10 → DTW 06:03 +1DL 502 7h 08m 91% 61%
DeltaDetails → LAX 18:20 → SAN 19:17DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m San Diego SAN 22:15 → DTW 05:43 +1DL 764 8h 23m 96% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LAX 13:30 → STL 19:10WN 2400 51m St Louis STL 20:01 → DTW 22:37WN 3658 6h 07m 40% 17%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487 49m Chicago ORD 21:29 → DTW 23:51UA 349 6h 25m 25% 16%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 14:45 → DEN 18:05WN 2392 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:05 → DTW 23:55WN 2193 6h 10m 37% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON