Today: UA 2397 at 21:00 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–49%.

Safest bet today UA 2397 LAX 21:00 → EWR 05:18 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1150 LAX 14:43 → EWR 22:45 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2397 United Flight history →	LAX 21:00	EWR 05:18	25%	9%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
UA 576 United	LAX 21:56	EWR 05:58	31%	9%	0.9%	no record
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:33	EWR 05:00	33%	10%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
UA 1700 United Flight history →	LAX 16:10	EWR 00:44	38%	11%	0.4%	84%worse than usual
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:55	EWR 19:28	39%	14%	0.7%	67%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	LAX 10:20	EWR 19:04	42%	14%	0.5%	72%worse than usual
UA 1981 United Flight history →	LAX 11:15	EWR 19:30	46%	16%	0.5%	72%worse than usual
UA 1950 United Flight history →	LAX 13:45	EWR 22:26	46%	20%	0.5%	61%
UA 2227 United Flight history →	LAX 12:15	EWR 20:49	48%	18%	0.5%	75%worse than usual
UA 1855 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	EWR 21:43	48%	20%	0.5%	62%worse than usual
UA 1150 United	LAX 14:43	EWR 22:45	49%	19%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON