Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 23–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 477 LAX 22:59 → FLL 07:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest B6 1400 LAX 20:40 → FLL 05:02 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 477 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:59	FLL 07:05	23%	5%	0.7%	73%
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	29%	9%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:31	FLL 18:47	30%	9%	0.2%	75%
B6 700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 23:35	FLL 07:56	30%	10%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
B6 100 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:05	FLL 20:25	31%	10%	0.2%	72%
B6 1300 JetBlue	LAX 15:33	FLL 23:48	31%	11%	0.3%	no record
B6 1400 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:40	FLL 05:02	33%	11%	0.7%	78%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 11:54 → IAH 17:22UA 2086	1h 04m Houston	IAH 18:26 → FLL 22:04UA 1956	7h 10m	77%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON