Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:43 pm at Los Angeles); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3576 at 21:25, 33%.

Nonstops today


DL 3576 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:25	GEG 00:02	33%	9%	0.2%	86%worse than usual
AS 1614 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 19:45	GEG 22:15	40%	10%	0.2%	87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LAX 19:05 → LAS 20:20WN 2404	2h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 22:42 → GEG 01:08 +1WN 2553	6h 03m	96%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 19:15 → SLC 22:04DL 1483	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466	4h 40m	65%	42%
Alaska Details →	LAX 19:09 → SEA 21:58AS 1368	56m Seattle	SEA 22:54 → GEG 23:59AS 350	4h 50m	38%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON