Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:08 pm at Los Angeles); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: UA 1084 at 12:58 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet today UA 1084 LAX 12:58 → IAH 18:23 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4998 LAX 14:34 → IAH 20:04 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1084 United	LAX 12:58	IAH 18:23	26%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 387 United Flight history →	LAX 19:21	IAH 00:50	26%	7%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
UA 1680 United Flight history →	LAX 19:28	IAH 01:02	28%	8%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
UA 2377 United Flight history →	LAX 16:42	IAH 22:16	29%	7%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
UA 2765 United	LAX 15:10	IAH 20:35	31%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 1591 United Flight history →	LAX 13:17	IAH 18:43	33%	7%	0.2%	73%
DL 1287 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:35	IAH 23:59	35%	9%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 5005 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	IAH 19:43	40%	9%	0.3%	77%worse than usual
OO 4998 SkyWest	LAX 14:34	IAH 20:04	43%	10%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON