Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:09 pm at Los Angeles); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2413 at 23:55, 36%.

Nonstops today


WN 2413 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 23:55	MDW 05:55	36%	8%	0.1%	86%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LAX 19:05 → LAS 20:20WN 2404	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 20m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LAX 21:20 → LAS 22:40WN 1571	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	6h 05m	63%	41%
Southwest Details →	LAX 20:55 → SJC 22:10WN 2435	50m San Jose	SJC 23:00 → MDW 05:08 +1WN 3824	6h 13m	34%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON