Today: AA 2777 at 22:52 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–39%.

Safest bet today AA 2777 LAX 22:52 → MIA 07:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3013 LAX 13:49 → MIA 21:57 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2777 American Flight history →	LAX 22:52	MIA 07:18	26%	7%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	28%	6%	0.4%	77%
AA 1221 American Flight history →	LAX 22:00	MIA 06:14	30%	6%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
AA 2289 American Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MIA 07:18	30%	7%	0.8%	70%
AA 3016 American Flight history →	LAX 10:40	MIA 19:00	31%	9%	0.3%	68%
AA 858 American	LAX 10:43	MIA 18:59	31%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 778 American	LAX 20:57	MIA 05:12	33%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2942 American Flight history →	LAX 20:52	MIA 05:01	35%	7%	0.7%	74%
AA 467 American	LAX 13:54	MIA 22:08	38%	10%	0.3%	no record
AA 3124 American Flight history →	LAX 12:25	MIA 20:45	38%	10%	0.4%	60%
AA 3013 American Flight history →	LAX 13:49	MIA 21:57	39%	9%	0.3%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 20:41 → PHX 22:09AA 2293	1h 34m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → MIA 07:19 +1AA 3224	7h 38m	79%	61%
American Details →	LAX 10:00 → PHX 11:28AA 1668	1h 24m Phoenix	PHX 12:52 → MIA 20:28AA 1983	7h 28m	87%	58%
United Details →	LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277	1h 10m Houston	IAH 16:50 → MIA 20:33UA 2740	7h 23m	85%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON