Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:21 am at Los Angeles); 13 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Today: UA 353 at 22:35 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–54%.

Safest bet today UA 353 LAX 22:35 → ORD 04:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3192 LAX 13:21 → ORD 19:30 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 353 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	ORD 04:51	26%	8%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
UA 1962 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	ORD 05:46	26%	7%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
UA 1328 United	LAX 23:10	ORD 05:21	27%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 3161 American	LAX 23:38	ORD 05:48	33%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 991 American	LAX 22:52	ORD 04:59	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 212 United Flight history →	LAX 17:00	ORD 23:16	35%	9%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
AA 1009 American Flight history →	LAX 22:45	ORD 05:09	37%	10%	0.8%	76%worse than usual
DL 2368 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:24	ORD 17:35	43%	10%	0.1%	66%
UA 457 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	ORD 19:05	43%	10%	0.2%	69%worse than usual
AA 1050 American Flight history →	LAX 11:40	ORD 18:12	45%	10%	0.2%	61%
AA 2891 American Flight history →	LAX 11:47	ORD 18:06	45%	11%	0.2%	74%worse than usual
AA 2718 American Flight history →	LAX 16:25	ORD 23:00	45%	11%	0.3%	66%worse than usual
UA 2780 United	LAX 16:41	ORD 22:42	46%	10%	0.2%	no record
DL 1634 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:15	ORD 23:18	46%	12%	0.1%	67%worse than usual
AA 1433 American Flight history →	LAX 17:50	ORD 00:07	47%	11%	0.2%	62%
F9 2446 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:59	ORD 06:17	48%	19%	1.3%	61%
AA 3134 American Flight history →	LAX 13:16	ORD 19:59	48%	11%	0.2%	58%
UA 2487 United Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ORD 20:40	49%	11%	0.2%	69%worse than usual
AA 1998 American Flight history →	LAX 17:21	ORD 23:34	50%	11%	0.2%	42%
UA 2794 United Flight history →	LAX 15:17	ORD 21:17	53%	10%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
AA 3192 American	LAX 13:21	ORD 19:30	54%	12%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON