Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:21 am at Los Angeles)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:00, 42% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 12:00 → ATL 19:39DL 446	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	9h 51m	94%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1988	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	7h 53m	64%	34%
Delta Details →	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	7h 36m	65%	29%
Delta Details →	LAX 12:00 → ATL 19:39DL 446	51m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22DL 1606	7h 22m	48%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON