Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:08 am at Los Angeles); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 25–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 1355 LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 6424 LAX 20:10 → PDX 22:39 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 1355 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:23	PDX 13:44	25%	7%	0.4%	84%
AS 207 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 21:35	PDX 23:56	26%	7%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
AS 1397 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:27	PDX 20:48	26%	7%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
AS 1315 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 14:27	PDX 16:47	28%	8%	0.4%	92%worse than usual
DL 2459 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:01	PDX 19:17	31%	9%	0.1%	86%worse than usual
DL 2457 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:00	PDX 22:13	32%	9%	0.1%	81%worse than usual
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:19	PDX 16:34	33%	9%	0.1%	86%worse than usual
AA 6424 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:10	PDX 22:39	35%	11%	0.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON