Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2758 LAX 23:42 → PHL 07:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 513 LAX 15:20 → PHL 23:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2758 American Flight history →	LAX 23:42	PHL 07:57	26%	7%	0.5%	86%worse than usual
AA 3276 American Flight history →	LAX 22:46	PHL 07:00	29%	7%	0.5%	63%
AA 513 American Flight history →	LAX 15:20	PHL 23:39	33%	12%	0.6%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 14:45 → DEN 18:05WN 2392	1h 50m Denver	DEN 19:55 → PHL 01:35 +1WN 3839	7h 50m	79%	38%
Southwest Details →	LAX 13:30 → STL 19:10WN 2400	1h 25m St Louis	STL 20:35 → PHL 23:50WN 3966	7h 20m	78%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON