Today: DL 3746 at 22:45 is the safest bet, 38% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42–52%.

Safest bet today DL 3746 LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 5415 LAX 18:50 → SAN 19:51 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3746 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:45	SAN 23:42	38%	11%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
UA 594 United Flight history →	LAX 22:56	SAN 23:54	42%	13%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
UA 1100 United	LAX 19:17	SAN 20:28	50%	27%	0.5%	no record
UA 582 United	LAX 16:27	SAN 17:25	51%	25%	0.5%	no record
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	SAN 19:17	52%	21%	0.9%	84%worse than usual
UA 5415 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:50	SAN 19:51	52%	20%	0.9%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON