Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:35 pm at Los Angeles); 52 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 57%, against 44% on a calm day. Safest: AA 6260 at 22:10, 47%.

Safest bet today AA 6260 LAX 22:10 → SFO 23:39 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest WN 2106 LAX 20:55 → SFO 22:21 · 68% chance 15+ min late

Weather 57% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 44% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 52 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:10	SFO 23:39	47%	13%	0.4%	63%worse than usual
UA 2056 United Flight history →	LAX 21:34	SFO 23:02	50%	18%	0.2%	61%worse than usual
AS 3067 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:27	SFO 23:57	50%	12%	0.5%	36%
AA 6510 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:32	SFO 23:59	50%	11%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
UA 1047 United	LAX 22:31	SFO 23:59	54%	15%	0.2%	no record
DL 2986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:00	SFO 23:19	55%	15%	0.3%	60%worse than usual
AS 1364 Alaska	LAX 20:00	SFO 20:54	56%	14%	0.4%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	LAX 20:10	SFO 21:38	58%	19%	0.2%	28%
DL 1693 Delta	LAX 20:08	SFO 21:32	58%	20%	0.6%	no record
AA 3100 American Flight history →	LAX 21:09	SFO 22:38	62%	20%	0.2%	40%
WN 2429 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:45	SFO 23:15	64%	15%	0.1%	9%
UA 2837 United	LAX 19:45	SFO 20:55	65%	20%	0.3%	no record
WN 2106 Southwest	LAX 20:55	SFO 22:21	68%	15%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON