Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:17 am at Los Angeles); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Today: DL 3842 at 12:57 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–48%.

Safest bet today DL 3842 LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 193 LAX 18:45 → SJC 19:55 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:57	SJC 14:12	24%	5%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:32	SJC 15:46	28%	7%	0.2%	95%worse than usual
OO 3849 SkyWest	LAX 14:25	SJC 15:52	29%	7%	0.2%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	LAX 16:06	SJC 17:27	31%	11%	0.2%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:17	SJC 19:32	32%	7%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
DL 1438 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:00	SJC 17:12	33%	11%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
DL 1420 Delta	LAX 20:52	SJC 22:13	35%	13%	0.2%	no record
DL 3073 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:59	SJC 22:13	36%	11%	0.2%	82%worse than usual
WN 3222 Southwest	LAX 22:35	SJC 23:55	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2509 Southwest	LAX 13:36	SJC 14:58	37%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4484 Southwest	LAX 18:21	SJC 19:43	39%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 2435 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 20:55	SJC 22:10	42%	13%	0.1%	54%
WN 2596 Southwest	LAX 22:11	SJC 23:33	42%	10%	0.2%	no record
F9 4081 Frontier	LAX 18:36	SJC 20:06	42%	19%	1.3%	no record
WN 2510 Southwest	LAX 19:41	SJC 21:04	42%	12%	0.2%	no record
F9 2457 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:11	SJC 19:28	45%	13%	1.2%	81%worse than usual
WN 193 Southwest	LAX 18:45	SJC 19:55	48%	11%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON