Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:16 pm at Los Angeles); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, 27% on time.

Nonstops today


AA 5000 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:13	STL 23:59	47%	11%	0.2%	77%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 +1DL 2666	5h 36m	40%	27%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON