Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: OO 283 at 19:51, 42%.

Safest bet today OO 283 LAX 19:51 → TUS 21:36 · 42% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1079 LAX 21:59 → TUS 23:39 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 283 SkyWest	LAX 19:51	TUS 21:36	42%	19%	0.4%	no record
OO 6292 SkyWest	LAX 16:13	TUS 17:55	43%	19%	0.3%	no record
DL 3846 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:21	TUS 20:59	43%	16%	0.4%	82%worse than usual
AA 6372 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:42	TUS 18:15	46%	18%	0.3%	83%worse than usual
AA 6315 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:25	TUS 21:02	46%	19%	0.4%	76%worse than usual
WN 278 Southwest	LAX 16:15	TUS 17:45	58%	23%	0.2%	no record
WN 1079 Southwest	LAX 21:59	TUS 23:39	60%	23%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON