Today: AA 4392 at 19:59 is the safest bet, 43% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 52–67%.

Safest bet today AA 4392 LGA 19:59 → BNA 21:43 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest WN 2527 LGA 19:36 → BNA 21:00 · 67% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 64% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 20 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4392 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:59	BNA 21:43	43%	19%	1.0%	63%
WN 2449 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 19:45	BNA 21:35	52%	19%	0.9%	68%worse than usual
AA 980 American	LGA 20:19	BNA 21:43	58%	22%	0.7%	no record
DL 1010 Delta	LGA 19:46	BNA 21:10	58%	22%	0.7%	no record
WN 2527 Southwest	LGA 19:36	BNA 21:00	67%	20%	0.8%	no record
DL 4723 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:15	BNA 21:00	37%	21%	20.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON