tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at New York)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 17:00, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318 7h 14m 97% 62%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 17:40 → MDW 19:30WN 4746 1h 50m Chicago MDW 21:20 → BWI 00:19 +1WN 1588 6h 39m 83% 60%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999 2h 06m Detroit DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715 6h 18m 88% 57%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → BOS 18:40DL 5725 · flown by Republic 1h 55m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 5h 29m 78% 56%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 7h 39m 81% 29%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602 57m Chicago ORD 20:09 → BWI 23:17UA 220 5h 52m 48% 32%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:00 → BOS 19:40DL 5738 · flown by Republic 55m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 4h 29m 32% 23%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 17:55 → BNA 19:50WN 2448 53m Nashville BNA 20:43 → BWI 23:40WN 499 5h 45m 31% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON