Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 31–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4583 LGA 21:00 → CHS 23:21 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest YX 4561 LGA 20:30 → CHS 22:56 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4583 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:00	CHS 23:21	31%	14%	1.3%	74%
YX 4561 Republic	LGA 20:30	CHS 22:56	35%	16%	1.3%	no record
DL 4676 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:32	CHS 22:02	36%	22%	9.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON