Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 38–45% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today YX 4514 LGA 17:55 → CLE 19:52 · 38% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4722 LGA 20:40 → CLE 22:34 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 44% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4514 Republic	LGA 17:55	CLE 19:52	38%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 4722 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:40	CLE 22:34	45%	18%	0.6%	64%
DL 4974 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:30	CLE 22:35	33%	17%	13.7%	67%
DL 5194 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:14	CLE 19:19	34%	17%	6.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON