Today: AA 1942 at 18:15 is the safest bet, 37% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 45–60%.

Safest bet today AA 1942 LGA 18:15 → CLT 20:33 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest F9 3133 LGA 18:33 → CLT 20:30 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 52% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 16 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1942 American Flight history →	LGA 18:15	CLT 20:33	37%	13%	0.8%	67%
DL 5705 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:40	CLT 21:41	45%	11%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
F9 3133 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 18:33	CLT 20:30	60%	27%	2.7%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON