Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1371 at 12:00, 36%.

Safest bet today B6 1371 LGA 12:00 → FLL 15:03 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest B6 571 LGA 20:50 → FLL 23:59 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 12:00	FLL 15:03	36%	12%	0.6%	61%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:30	FLL 19:56	39%	13%	0.5%	66%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:29	FLL 22:52	40%	14%	0.6%	66%
AA 2836 American	LGA 16:13	FLL 19:29	43%	18%	0.7%	no record
B6 1171 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 16:29	FLL 19:43	50%	22%	0.7%	62%worse than usual
AA 3196 American Flight history →	LGA 15:55	FLL 19:10	51%	19%	0.7%	50%
B6 371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:34	FLL 21:31	52%	23%	0.6%	52%
B6 471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 15:40	FLL 18:53	52%	24%	0.7%	61%worse than usual
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:50	FLL 23:59	58%	23%	0.8%	56%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON