Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2349 at 14:55, 31%.

Safest bet today DL 2349 LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest DL 2313 LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:01 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2349 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:55	MSP 17:06	31%	12%	0.3%	75%
DL 2015 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:05	MSP 20:43	35%	12%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
DL 2313 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:06	MSP 20:01	42%	13%	0.6%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON