Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2460 at 15:10, 50%.

Safest bet today DL 2460 LGA 15:10 → PBI 18:32 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest B6 1761 LGA 18:00 → PBI 21:05 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Weather 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2460 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:10	PBI 18:32	50%	19%	7.5%	65%worse than usual
DL 2410 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:29	PBI 22:46	51%	20%	7.0%	63%worse than usual
B6 1761 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:00	PBI 21:05	63%	35%	11.6%	58%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON