tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:29 pm at New York)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:06, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:01DL 2313 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 8h 40m 81% 61%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:19 → ORD 20:04AA 1795 1h 34m Chicago ORD 21:38 → SFO 00:19 +1AA 3202 9h 00m 79% 49%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 17:40 → MDW 19:30WN 4746 2h 01m Chicago MDW 21:31 → SFO 00:10 +1WN 2199 9h 30m 84% 48%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:00 → DFW 21:06AA 2388 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446 9h 43m 76% 32%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:54 → IAH 20:52UA 1066 1h 07m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 9h 11m 58% 38%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:00 → BOS 19:40DL 5738 · flown by Republic 1h 17m Boston BOS 20:57 → SFO 00:31 +1DL 2919 9h 31m 55% 38%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:00 → DFW 21:06AA 2388 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:10 → SFO 00:05 +1AA 2775 9h 05m 49% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON