Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:07 pm at Long Beach); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52% (calm day: 30%). Best bet: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 17:40, 48% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 17:40 → LAS 18:50WN 2485	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 20:50 → HOU 01:55 +1WN 2244	6h 15m	100%	48%
Southwest Details →	LGB 16:15 → PHX 17:35WN 2493	2h 45m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → HOU 01:00 +1WN 4436	6h 45m	98%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON