Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2861 at 14:01, 37%.

Safest bet today WN 2861 LGB 14:01 → LAS 15:12 · 37% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2560 LGB 14:01 → LAS 14:45 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2861 Southwest	LGB 14:01	LAS 15:12	37%	15%	0.2%	no record
WN 2272 Southwest	LGB 19:59	LAS 21:10	37%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 2334 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 14:00	LAS 15:10	37%	15%	0.2%	64%
WN 2485 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 17:40	LAS 18:50	38%	14%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
WN 2628 Southwest	LGB 18:44	LAS 19:55	40%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 1492 Southwest	LGB 16:25	LAS 17:35	42%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 2560 Southwest	LGB 14:01	LAS 14:45	44%	15%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON