Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:30 am at Long Beach)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 16:55, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 16:55 → SMF 18:20WN 4897	3h 50m Sacramento	SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15 +1WN 3799	10h 20m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	LGB 16:55 → SLC 19:58DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	10h 05m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	LGB 19:45 → SMF 21:05WN 2507	1h 26m Sacramento	SMF 22:31 → MCO 06:34 +1WN 3943	7h 49m	90%	66%
Southwest Details →	LGB 17:40 → LAS 18:50WN 2485	4h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590	9h 45m	100%	64%
Southwest Details →	LGB 14:00 → LAS 15:10WN 2334	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 17:30 → MCO 01:15 +1WN 1555	8h 15m	100%	62%
Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056	7h 55m	93%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON