Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 714 at 17:25, 31%.

Safest bet today WN 714 LGB 17:25 → SMF 19:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4897 LGB 16:55 → SMF 18:20 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 714 Southwest	LGB 17:25	SMF 19:00	31%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 2585 Southwest	LGB 19:30	SMF 21:05	37%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 2507 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 19:45	SMF 21:05	42%	9%	0.2%	78%worse than usual
WN 4897 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 16:55	SMF 18:20	43%	8%	0.1%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON