Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Midland); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1927 Southwest	MAF 18:35	DAL 19:55	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 4331 Southwest	MAF 18:35	DAL 19:58	28%	10%	0.7%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MAF 18:25 → HOU 20:00WN 2526	1h 50m Houston	HOU 21:50 → DAL 23:03WN 62	4h 38m	90%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MAF 18:25 → HOU 20:00WN 2526	1h 00m Houston	HOU 21:00 → DAL 22:15WN 60	3h 50m	67%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON